不同发展模式下资源环境承载力评价——以海南省为例

文章关注于产业、人口与资源环境要素的作用关系，建构了资源环境承载力综合评价框架，并以海南省为案例区开展应用研究。该框架首先对区域产业重要性进行评价并分级，为产业结构调整提供依据；其次解析了区域产业、人口资源消耗与污染排放强度，最后，基于产业评价结果设定不同的产业结构调整情景，结合产业和人口的资源消耗与污染排放强度评价不同产业结构下的资源环境承载力，即产业和人口的规模上限。结果表明：2016年海南省的经济规模并未超载，产业有进一步发展空间。其中土地资源成为海南省发展的首要限制因素，其次是水环境；海南经济效益较高的支柱产业和基础性产业多为高耗水、高污染的产业，亟需加强水资源的集约利用，并降低污染排放强度。为提升经济发展规模上限，需要培育低能耗、低排放的产业。文章建构的资源环境承载力评价方法将产业、人口与资源环境相联系，其评价结果政策意义更为明确，可为优化产业结构调整、控制产业及人口发展规模提供决策参考。     

对欧亚非大陆自由主义民主格局演变的批判性分析

自由主义民主作为西方谋求世界霸权而肆意输出的意识形态，以批判性话语剖析欧亚非大陆自由主义民主状况，对揭露西方民主输出的真实目的意义重大。探究欧亚非大陆“自由”等级格局演变特征，搭建“自由”等级格局演变影响因子体系，并揭示其演变影响机制。研究发现：①“自由”国家数量总体显著增长，从欧洲南部、西部、北部，亚洲南部、东北部扩散至欧洲东部、中部和非洲南部地区；“部分自由”国家数量总体明显增加，基本分布在亚洲南部、东南部，非洲东部、西部和南部；“不自由”国家数量总体略有减少，从欧洲东部、亚洲和非洲大部分地区压缩至亚非大部分地区。②“自由”等级标准差指数表现出明显上升趋势，而其变异系数表现出波动下降趋势。③总体上，欧亚非大陆具有相似“自由”等级的国家集聚程度在不断增强，其中，高值集聚出现波动增强；局部上，冷点、次冷点区域呈现“联成一片”的态势，热点、次热点区域则有“东进”的趋势。④社会经济、外部扩散、文化宗教、政治制度、西方行为等因素影响显著，且在整体和局部影响机制上呈现明显差异。⑤“自由之家”为突出和强调西方在国际政治领域的标准制定权和话语权，其“自由”等级指数具有极强的意识形态属性和战略意图。     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the D.P.R. Korean Seismic Event on September 23, 2017

A M3. 4 seismic event occurred in the Punggye-ri nuclear test site,D. P. R Korea at 16∶29 p.m. on September 23,2017. We analyzed the waveforms of this event recorded by the China Earthquake Networks Center. In conclusion,this event is complex,including an explosion with a successive earthquake. Although the beginning of the event is an explosion,fault dislocation plays the main role in the event.     

Analysis of nonstationarity in low flow in the Loess Plateau of China

An approach for nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis is developed and demonstrated on a dataset from the rivers on the Loess Plateau of China. Nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis has drawn significant attention in recent years by establishing relationships between low‐flow series and explanatory variables series, but few studies have tested whether the time‐varying moments of low flow can be fully described by the time‐varying moments of the explanatory variables. In this research, the low‐flow distributions are analytically derived from the 2 basic explanatory variables—the recession duration and the recession coefficient—with the assumption that the recession duration and recession coefficient variables follow exponential and gamma distributions, respectively; the derived low‐flow distributions are applied to test whether the time‐varying moments of explanatory variables can explain the nonstationarities found in the low‐flow variable. The effects of ecosystem construction measures, that is, check dam, terrace, forest, and grassland, on the recession duration and recession coefficient are further discussed. Daily flow series from 11 hydrological stations from the Loess Plateau are used and processed with a moving average technique. Low‐flow data are extracted following the pit under threshold approach. Six of the 11 low‐flow series show significant nonstationarities at the 5% significance level, and the trend curves of the moments of low flow are in close agreement with the curves estimated from the derived distribution with time‐dependent moments of the recession duration and time‐constant moments of the recession coefficient. It is indicated that the nonstationarity in the low‐flow distribution results from the nonstationarity in the recession duration in all 6 cases, and the increase in the recession duration is resulted from large‐scale ecosystem constructions rather than climate change. The large‐scale ecosystem constructions are found to have more influence on the decrease in streamflow than on the increase in watershed storage, thus resulting in the reduction of low flow. A high return period for the initial fixed design value decreases dramatically with an increasing recession duration.     

Analysis of Gravity Changes before and after the Akto MS6.7 Earthquake in 2016

This paper analyzes the characteristics of time sequence changes of gravity points near the epicenter, different changes of measuring lines and gravity changes of measuring areas in point-line-area manner respectively with the 5-period mobile gravity data through densified observation by the South Xinjiang Observation Network after the 2015-2016 Akto earthquake in Xinjiang. The gravity observation results before the earthquake indicate that the Wuqia-Bulungkol area near the epicenter presented the trend of gravity value increasing since 2015, but the gravity value decreased half a year before the earthquake, and witnessed a high gradient zone of gravity changes during some periods before the earthquake. The gravity observation results after the earthquake show that there is a trend of opposite changes in gravity difference on the northern and southern sides of Bulunkou, and good correspondence exists between the characteristics of gravity field changes near the epicenter before and after the earthquake and the geologic structure distribution in the area.     

内蒙古碾子沟钼矿床成矿流体来源、演化及成矿机理

内蒙古自治区碾子沟钼矿床地处华北地台北缘西拉木伦钼成矿带西段，为一典型的中型石英脉型钼矿床。该钼矿床矿脉（体）主要产于燕山早期二长花岗岩-钾长花岗岩内NNW、NW向断裂构造体系之中，成矿作用过程经历了黄铁矿±辉钼矿＋石英（Ⅰ）、辉钼矿＋黄铁矿±黄铜矿＋石英（Ⅱ）、黄铜矿＋黄铁矿±闪锌矿＋石英（Ⅲ）及石英±方解石（Ⅳ）4个阶段。系统的流体包裹体岩相学、包裹体组分析、包裹体显微测温研究表明，矿床初始成矿流体为高温、中低盐度（490~550℃，盐度（w（NaC1））2%~10%，50~62 MPa）均匀的NaCl-H₂O体系热液，δ¹⁸O_H2O-SMOW（2.21‰）及δD_H2O-SMOW（-68.9‰）表明其主要来源于岩浆热液；成矿流体上升并不断汇聚于容矿断裂空间，伴随温度、压力降低（380~460℃，26~40 MPa→360~420℃，25~30 MPa）而进入两相不混溶区，流体开始发生沸腾→强烈沸腾作用，导致成矿元素Mo大量沉淀富集成矿，成矿晚期残余流体与大气降水混合（δ¹⁸O_H2O-SMOW为-2.41‰~2.51‰，δD_H2O-SMOW为-110.1‰~-105.5‰），矿床属燕山早期中高温岩浆热液型钼矿床。     

Cu–Mo Differential Mineralization Mechanism of the Dabate Polymetallic Deposit in Western Tianshan,NW China: Evidence from Geology,Fluid Inclusions,and Oxygen Isotope Systematics

Classic porphyry Cu–Mo deposits are mostly characterized by close temporal and spatial relationships between Cu and Mo mineralization. The northern Dabate Cu–Mo deposit is a newly discovered porphyry Cu–Mo polymetallic deposit in western Tianshan, northwest China. The Cu mineralization postdates the Mo mineralization and is located in shallower levels in the deposit, which is different from most classic porphyry Cu–Mo deposits. Detailed field investigations, together with microthermometry, laser Raman spectroscopy, and O‐isotope studies of fluid inclusions, were conducted to investigate the origin and evolution of ore‐forming fluids from the main Mo to main Cu stage of mineralization in the deposit. The results show that the ore‐forming fluids of the main Mo stage belonged to an NaCl + H₂O system of medium to high temperatures (280–310°C) and low salinities (2–4 wt% NaCl equivalent (eq.)), whereas that of the main Cu stage belonged to an F‐rich NaCl + CO₂ + H₂O system of medium to high temperatures (230–260°C) and medium to low salinities (4–10 wt% NaCl eq.). The δ¹⁸O values of the ore‐forming fluids decrease from 3.7–7.8‰ in the main Mo stage to ?7.5 to ?2.9‰ in the main Cu stage. These data indicate that the separation of Cu and Mo was closely related to a large‐scale vapor–brine separation of the early ore‐forming fluids, which produced the Mo‐bearing and Cu‐bearing fluids. Subsequently, the relatively reducing (CH₄‐rich) Mo‐bearing, ore‐forming fluids, dominantly of magmatic origin, caused mineralization in the rhyolite porphyry due to fluid boiling, whereas the relatively oxidizing (CO₂‐rich) Cu‐bearing, ore‐forming fluids mixed with meteoric water and precipitated chalcopyrite within the crushed zone at the contact between rhyolite porphyry and wall rock. We suggest that the separation of Cu and Mo in the deposit may be attributed to differences in the chemical properties of Cu and Mo, large‐scale vapor–brine separation of early ore‐forming fluids, and changes in oxygen fugacity.     

基于多变量LSTM神经网络的地下水水位预测

为解决以往模型未考虑地下水位相关影响因素的问题，探讨长短期记忆（LSTM）神经网络在地下水位预测中的应用，利用长短期记忆神经网络，采用多变量输入的方式，构建了基于多变量LSTM神经网络的地下水水位预测模型。以泰安市岱岳区J1号监测井为例，采用2001-2014年地下水水位动态监测资料与相关影响因素数据，利用多变量LSTM神经网络对2015-2016年地下水位进行预测，并与单变量LSTM神经网络和反向传播（BP）神经网络进行对比。研究结果表明：以相关影响变量为输入的BP神经网络无法考虑时序变化规律，预测均方根误差最大，为2.399 3；以地下水位为变量输入的单变量LSTM神经网络仅能根据时序变化作出相应预测，无法考虑相关变量影响，预测均方根误差为2.102 2；基于多变量输入的LSTM神经网络的预测精度显著高于单变量LSTM神经网络和BP神经网络，预测均方根误差最小，仅为1.919 1。总体上，多变量LSTM神经网络地下水位预测模型仅在某些峰值处误差较大，但总体预测效果较为理想。     

甘肃柳园地区早二叠世正长花岗斑岩脉锆石U-Pb年代学、岩石地球化学特征——对北山造山带晚古生代构造背景的指示

甘肃北山地区位于中亚造山带中段，是诠释中亚造山带构造演化的关键区域之一，长期以来受到地质学界的广泛关注。柳园地区位于甘肃北山南带，区内脉岩发育，这些岩脉的研究可以为阐释北山造山带晚古生代构造背景提供更多证据。基于此，本文选取位于甘肃柳园地区的正长花岗斑岩脉开展了系统的锆石U-Pb-Hf同位素和全岩主量、微量元素分析。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb分析显示，岩脉侵位于早二叠世（（288.5±1.4）Ma）。全岩地球化学分析显示，正长花岗斑岩脉的SiO₂和全碱质量分数较高，Fe、Mg、Ca、Al和P质量分数较低，Rb、Th、U和Pb相对富集，Ba、Nb、La、Ce、Sr和Ti等元素相对亏损，Eu负异常显著，具有较高的Rb/Sr值和较低的K/Rb值及锆石饱和温度（730~844℃，集中于740℃左右），显示该岩脉为高钾钙碱性高分异I型花岗岩，并具有俯冲带岩浆活动的地球化学特征。正长花岗斑岩脉具有较低的Zr/Hf值（18.42~28.01，平均值为22.37）和Th/U值（3.82~7.99，平均值为5.34），与平均地壳组分接近，锆石ε_Hf（t）值为2.94~9.66，平均值为5.72，T_DM2值为955~611 Ma，指示源区主体为新元古代地壳的部分熔融，并存在幔源物质加入。根据构造判别图解并结合前人关于二叠纪区域构造变形、盆地沉积物源、岩浆演化等方面的研究结果，笔者认为该正长花岗斑岩脉形成于俯冲作用过程中的局部伸展环境，并认为北山地区增生造山事件至少持续到早二叠世。     

秦皇岛近岸海域潮间带砂质沉积物中微塑料和重金属污染特征

基于密度分离原理，利用饱和NaCl溶液对秦皇岛近岸海域潮间带砂质沉积物中的微塑料进行了浮选和分离提取，采用显微红外光谱方法分析附着在滤膜上的微塑料颗粒形貌和材质。结合扫描电子显微镜?能谱仪(Scanning Electron Microscopy Energy Dispersive Spectrometer，SEM-EDS)对微塑料样品进行微观形貌观察及微区成分的分析。并采用地累积指数(Geo Accumulation Indexes，I_geo)和富集系数(Enrichment Factors，EF)分析砂质沉积物中重金属Hg、Cd和Pb污染水平和富集特点。分析砂质沉积物中烧失量(Loss on Ignition，LOI)、总有机碳(Total Organic Carbon，TOC)、总氮(Total Nitrogen，TN)以及碳氮的稳定同位素组成(δ13C和δ15N)，探讨有机质的可能来源。结果表明:秦皇岛近岸海域潮间带砂质沉积物中有纤维类、发泡类、薄膜类3种微塑料，以纤维类的微塑料为主。微塑料表层富集有Si、Al、Mg、Fe和Ca等元素。沉积物中Hg和Cd富集水平较高，Pb富集水平较低。沉积物TOC和TN含量较低，LOI为TOC的1.6倍，δ13C、δ15N和TOC/TN的数值范围均显示有机质以海洋浮游植物藻类等海源为主。